Buy Low: Aaron Hill
Tuesday May 24th, 2011
Buy Low takes a look at fantasy players who are slumping or generally aren't instilling much confidence in their owners. These players can be targeted via trade or on the waiver wire and, upon a return to form, can help you win your fantasy leagues. Today's Buy Low focuses on Toronto Blue Jays second baseman Aaron Hill.
Heading in to the 2010 season, Aaron Hill's name was used in the same sentence as top-tier second basemen Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler. Now, Hill isn't being mentioned much at all. After a breakout 2009 season in which he hit for a .286 average with 36 home runs, Hill regressed to a .206 average in 2010, though he kept his power numbers up with 26 round-trippers.
This year, the oft-injured second baseman has already had a lengthy stint on the disabled list but has seen his average rise steadily over the last week or so. As of Tuesday morning, Hill has 11 hits in his last 32 at-bats and has raised his batting average nearly 40 points, though his 2011 home run total still sits at zero. While that may be alarming to some, his power has been consistent enough over the past few years that he should end this season with a very respectable 15 to 20 homers.
Hill is a great low-risk, high-reward fantasy hitter at this point in the season. A low-end starter could get a trade for him done quickly, and a fantasy owner could start reaping the benefits as soon as possible. Hill has a .270 career batting average, but in order to match that he'll have to hit about .290 over the rest of the season. If he even comes close to that mark from here on, he'll be a steal.
Aaron Hill won't be ending the season with 26 homers like he did year, but if he rakes 15 from here on and can keep his average above .265, he'll be just as valuable as his 2010 self. It's reasonable to predict that, by mid-July, Hill will start looking like a "sell high" type of guy. He's a little streaky, and a two-week power surge could be just what a fantasy owner needs to turn this low-risk second baseman in to a new top starter.
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