Joseph Merkel
Not With a Ten-Foot Pole: First Basemen
Thursday February 24th, 2011
Adam Lind is hoping to rebound and post numbers from 2009. (Getty)
This year, the first base position is about as deep as they come, and unless you're in a large league, you should be able to pick up premier talent. However, with many of the superstars of the league playing first base, there will be owners that try to jump on multiple names to give their team a prime utility player. If you end up in this boat, don't panic, but be sure to follow this list of first baseman to steer clear of on draft day.
Joseph's Pick: Adam Lind (2010 Totals: 613 PA, .237/.287/.425, 23 HR, 72 RBI)
After hitting .305 with 35 home runs in 2009, Lind dropped off considerably last year. While his 23 homers were useful, his .237 batting average and .712 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) were terrible for a starting fantasy first baseman. Though he's a career .280 hitter over four big league seasons, his .237 average was the lowest since the 2007 season. While Lind could end up being a bargain on draft day, much of his success will depend on where he's hitting in the lineup. Lind finished the 2010 season hitting in the bottom third of the order, and if he starts there this season, he will have to prove he can hit without protection. Lind was the Blue Jays primary designated hitter last season, but will be moving to first base this year. Declining numbers and a position switch are two red flags with Adam Lind on draft day.
Reggie's Pick: Paul Konerko (2010 Totals: 631 PA, .312/.393/.584, 39 HR, 111 RBI)
For the first time since 2006, Konerko hit at least 30 home runs while driving in over 100 runs. The 34-year-old first baseman posted MVP-type numbers last season, with fantasy owners cashing in on their late round investment. However, entering this season, fantasy owners are currently drafting Konerko around the sixth round (according to Mock Draft Central ADP) with the expectation of the soon-to-be 35 year old repeating his 2010 numbers. But I'm not sold on Konerko repeating his offensive outburst in 2011, as he's a career .280/.356/.498 hitter, and has shown he only provides home runs to fantasy managers. The .312 batting average last season can be attributed to his eyebrow-raising .326 batting average on balls in play (BAbip) in 2011, which was 41 points higher than his career mark of .285. He'll likely regress back to career normals in 2011, but playing home games at hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field will likely help with his home run production. Regardless, I'm not paying full price for Konerko on draft day, hoping for a return to glory days from 2005 and 2006.
Dan's Pick: James Loney (2010 Totals: 648 PA, .267/.329/.395, 10 HR, 88 RBI, 10 SB)
While James Loney has put up solid RBI numbers over the last three seasons (90, 90, and 88 in 2008, 2009, and 2010, respectively), he has hit just a combined 36 home runs in those three seasons, certainly well below the expected mark for an everyday first baseman in the modern era. A converted pitcher, Loney plays above-average defense and even showed some aggressiveness on the basepaths last year (10 steals in 15 attempts), but his previously high batting average has declined steadily since his first full season. In 96 games in 2007, at the age of 23, Loney hit .331 with 15 home runs and 67 RBI. Three full seasons later, that 15 home runs is still a career high, and Loney has hit .289, .281, and .267 in the three years since. Some still have faith that the 26 year-old Loney will recover his batting average and/or develop a 20-home run stroke, but I'm not among them. He's had every conceivable opportunity to establish himself as a top big league first baseman, but his steady decline in production suggests he's destined for mediocrity at the plate.
Reggie Yinger, Dan Port, Nate Springfield, Brandon Warne, and Joseph Merkel all contributed to this article.
Dan's Pick: James Loney (2010 Totals: 648 PA, .267/.329/.395, 10 HR, 88 RBI, 10 SB)
While James Loney has put up solid RBI numbers over the last three seasons (90, 90, and 88 in 2008, 2009, and 2010, respectively), he has hit just a combined 36 home runs in those three seasons, certainly well below the expected mark for an everyday first baseman in the modern era. A converted pitcher, Loney plays above-average defense and even showed some aggressiveness on the basepaths last year (10 steals in 15 attempts), but his previously high batting average has declined steadily since his first full season. In 96 games in 2007, at the age of 23, Loney hit .331 with 15 home runs and 67 RBI. Three full seasons later, that 15 home runs is still a career high, and Loney has hit .289, .281, and .267 in the three years since. Some still have faith that the 26 year-old Loney will recover his batting average and/or develop a 20-home run stroke, but I'm not among them. He's had every conceivable opportunity to establish himself as a top big league first baseman, but his steady decline in production suggests he's destined for mediocrity at the plate.
Nate's Pick: Garrett Jones
(2010 Totals: 654 PA, .247/.306/.414, 21 HR, 86 RBI)
In 2009, Garrett Jones became an everyday player for the Pirates, hitting .293/.372/.502 with 21 home runs over 358 plate appearances. After success in 2009, fantasy owners had big expectations for Jones in 2010, but were let down. Although Jones repeated his home run total from 2009, he needed almost double the amount of at-bats to do so. The lack of production isn't the only concern for Jones in 2011, as the Pirates are moving Ryan Doumit to the outfield and signed Lyle Overbay and Matt Diaz this off-season, likely resulting in fewer at-bats for Jones. With playing time a big question mark for Jones this season, he's not worth adding to your fantasy roster on draft day.
Brandon's Pick: Justin Morneau (2010 Totals: 348 PA, .345/.437/.618, 18 HR, 56 RBI)
In 2009, Garrett Jones became an everyday player for the Pirates, hitting .293/.372/.502 with 21 home runs over 358 plate appearances. After success in 2009, fantasy owners had big expectations for Jones in 2010, but were let down. Although Jones repeated his home run total from 2009, he needed almost double the amount of at-bats to do so. The lack of production isn't the only concern for Jones in 2011, as the Pirates are moving Ryan Doumit to the outfield and signed Lyle Overbay and Matt Diaz this off-season, likely resulting in fewer at-bats for Jones. With playing time a big question mark for Jones this season, he's not worth adding to your fantasy roster on draft day.
Brandon's Pick: Justin Morneau (2010 Totals: 348 PA, .345/.437/.618, 18 HR, 56 RBI)
If the first thing that comes to mind when reading Morneau's stat-line from 2010 is, "those are video game numbers", it's certainly forgivable. Morneau was pounding American League pitching to the tune of a 1.055 OPS when he went down in early July with a head injury. Morneau wouldn't return to the Twins for the rest of the season, and still isn't cleared for game action as Grapefruit League games are slated to begin this week. Morneau didn't have a full off-season slate of activities to keep in shape, so he'll most certainly be behind when facing live pitching again for the first time in over half a year. If Morneau can't shake the rust early, it could easily be a down year for the slugger, whose first and second half splits (.929/.791 OPS splits) are as disparate as anyone's in the game today. The Twins are exercising extreme caution with Morneau, and fantasy owners would do well to do the same.
Reggie Yinger, Dan Port, Nate Springfield, Brandon Warne, and Joseph Merkel all contributed to this article.
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